Latin America generates about 7% of the world’s electricity and non-traditional sources account only for 6% of the energy mix.
It is expected that by 2050 over 20% of the electricity generated in the region will come from non-hydro renewables.
May the contribution of photovoltaics be significant?
This technology has great potential in the region, but is still marginalized to the background among the countries’ energy choices and many times what is done about it is just to “stand” and very little is accomplished.
Compared to the rest of the world, the rate of solar photovoltaic energy implementation in Latin America is very low.
Annually the installation of about 100 GW of solar photovoltaic energy is expected worldwide and usually only 1% corresponds to this region.
However, the fact of not having been one of the pioneer regions where the development of this technology began will allow learning from other regions or countries mistakes.
We must distinguish between solar industrial development (manufacturing of modules and other components) and solar energy (solar electricity).
Solar industrial development in the region has difficulties with the sharp drop in solar modules’ prices.
In contrast, solar electricity production is favored by the fall in modules prices and makes solar photovoltaic energy more competitive.
The average cost of 1 W of installed solar PV has dramatically dropped in recent years and most projections indicate that this trend will continue. The underlying costs associated with solar photovoltaic energy will also continue to decline.
PV installed capacity of Latin American countries has always been oriented to isolated applications to meet the needs of rural populations without access to electricity network.
Only after 2014 solar photovoltaic projects began to attract capital.
Latin America has 51 solar photovoltaic plants in operation and 625 MW of installed PV in 2014, compared to 133 MW in 2013. They have announced 23 GW projects, 5,2 GW in contracts, 1,1 GW under construction and 722 MW in operation.
From GTM Research consultancy recent studies show that the installed capacity in MW has increased 370% in 2014 and is expected to rise 237% in 2015.
This figure could be revised downwards following the price collapse that has rocked the oil industry and the commodity sector in recent months.
Today, in Latin American countries with good levels of radiation and without large subsidies in the energy market, the model of solar PV is self-sustaining.
In some cities in Mexico, Brazil, Chile and Peru, the solar PV cost is situated very close to grid parity.
Countries like Costa Rica, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Dominican Republic and Uruguay already have national laws and regulations in place for connecting photovoltaic generators under the net metering system.
The most suitable places to locate large plants are the deserts near the Pacific coast and northeastern Brazil.
Over the next 20 years it is expected that the investment in solar photovoltaic energy per year will reach about U$S 100.000 million worldwide.
A forecasted development of 3,5 GW is estimated in Latin America by 2016.
Could this be possible?
To know it, we are going to do a country-by-country analysis because there are very different realities.